Erling Haaland’s Impact at City So Far

What the Numbers Say….

At the height of summer, a sun bathed Etihad stadium saw the unveiling of Erling Haaland. A City team who had predominantly played with a False 9 in the preceding two seasons signed the most devastating number 9 on the planet. Fourteen Premier League matches later, with ice on the ground, how have City adapted? Let’s see what the stats say.

Goals, Goals, Goals & xG

Erling Haaland guarantees goals, or at least that’s what it said on the label. So far, we can’t fault him. He has 23 goals in 17 appearances, 18 in 13 Premier League outings. Throughout this piece we’re going to focus on the Premier League stats.

City have scored 40 goals in 14 matches so far this season at a rate of 2.86/match. That’s up slightly from 2.61/match last season, when City scored 99 Premier League goals.

But xG tells a different story. City’s xG is down from 2.54/90 last season to 1.97/90 this season, a 22% decrease. That translates to 27.6 xG this season, so with 40 goals so far City are outperforming xG by 12.4 goals. Last season’s xG was 96.6, so with 99 goals City under-performed xG by 2.4 goals.

City are taking 17.43 shots per 90 compared to 18.53/90 last season, only a 6% decrease. Interestingly shots on target are up from 5.55/90 to 6.00/90, up 7.5%.

It’s still early days this season but so far City are taking slightly fewer shots and the quality of those chances is significantly worse. They are, however, putting more of those lower quality chances on target and indeed scoring more goals. The Haaland effect? Well, yes, Haaland is responsible for 6.9 (56%) of City’s 12.4 xG over-performance with Phil Foden responsible 3.3 (27%) of it.

Stats taken from FBref

Team Style

Thanks to Peter McKeever at The Analyst we have a way to measure team style in terms of direct speed (a measure of how quickly a team progresses the ball upfield (metres/second)) and passes per sequence (the average number of passes per sequence).

Looking at last season’s data (above) we can see City were an outlier in terms of team style, not only operating at the slowest direct speed (1.09 m/s) in the league but also with the highest passes per sequence (5.32). This tallies with what we saw on the pitch, City’s build up was slow and methodical with a False 9 helping to maintain controlled possession. City were a side that only went for the throat when the opportunity presented itself.

Such dominance is naturally perceived as an offensive style of play and City’s goal output would bear this out. But it also has it’s roots just as firmly planted in the defensive side of the game. The slow, deliberate build up allows the team to set up the optimum rest defence to snuff out any potential transitions.

Perceived wisdom may have suggested that the slowest, most methodical team in the league would quicken up somewhat with the signing of Erling Haaland, a striker who plays on the last line and is devastating in offensive transitions.

Alas, this season’s data (above) shows that, so far, City have actually gone the other way, slightly slower (1.04 m/s) and slightly more passes per sequence (5.47).

It’s dangerous to draw conclusions from such a small sample but I think it’s fair to say, in these aspects, City haven’t adapted their style to Haaland. They have taken advantage of Haaland’s strength in transition but it’s been occasional instead of consistent. It’s been natural, when the opportunity has arisen, as opposed to a planned shift in play style to get him in behind.

The main conclusion we can draw from these graphs is that City are still playing a completely different brand of football to anyone else in the league. The build up is much slower with far more passes compared to any other team. The style hasn’t changed notably despite Haaland’s arrival.

One other point to note from these graphs, Arsenal’s improvement has been achieved whilst quickening their play, going from a direct speed of 1.19 m/s (the second slowest in the league) to 1.38 m/s this season (the tenth slowest in the league).

Creativity

Kevin De Bruyne is still City’s and the Premier League’s leading creative force with 14 big chances created so far this season. That’s 6 more than anyone else in the league. He leads the league in Shot Creating Actions (SCA) with 83, 18 clear of the field.

SCA - The two offensive actions directly leading to a shot, such as passes, dribbles and drawing fouls. Note: A single player can receive credit for multiple actions and the shot-taker can also receive credit.

What may come as a surprise is who sits joint third in the league for big chances created.

Erling Haaland is proving not only a finisher but also a creator.

In terms of SCA, De Bruyne (6.60/90) is ably assisted by Jack Grealish (5.43/90) and Phil Foden (5.15/90). De Bruyne and Grealish also led the way last season (6.22/90 and 5.60/90 respectively). Foden’s shift back to consistent minutes on the wing has increased his SCA output by 27%, up from 3.76/90 last season.

Haaland’s SCA is down at 2.52/90. He’s not doing a huge amount of creative work, but when he does he has a great habit of creating big chances.

During his time at Dortmund, Haaland’s numbers in this area were remarkably similar with an SCA of 2.56/90. His expected assists (xA) in his Bundesliga career was 0.18/90. To put that into context, Sergio Agüero’s xA at City since ‘17/18 (when FBref began recording xA) was 0.19/90. Harry Kane’s during that period is at 0.16/90 and False 9 extraordinaire Roberto Firmino’s is 0.19/90. He may not be famed for it but Haaland has been a creative force at Dortmund and he’s continued in that vein at City with an impressive 0.24 xA/90 so far.

Is Haaland More Involved in Play?

The big question when Haaland signed was who will adapt? City to Haaland? Or Haaland to City?

We’ve already seen City haven’t changed much in terms of team style. The tempo is slow with a high number of passes per sequence. City’s average possession (66.1%) has dropped slightly since last season (67.9%) but is still league leading.

Many highlighted Haaland’s lack of involvement in the build-up at Dortmund when he arrived in the summer and wondered how that translate to such a possession heavy team like City. At Dortmund Haaland averaged only 29 touches/90. To give that some City context, last season Gabriel Jesus’ 49 touches/90 was the fewest at City. A better barometer may be Sergio Agüero, the last man to own the number 9 berth, he averaged 39 touches/90 during his time under Guardiola.

So far, Haaland has averaged 25 touches/90 at City, fewer than he averaged at Dortmund. City haven’t adapted to Haaland and Haaland hasn’t adapted to City.

Haaland is being Haaland.

Pressing

Out of possession Haaland is willing in the press. He doesn’t shirk responsibility in the first line. City’s pressing stats measured by passes per defensive action (PPDA) indicate pressing is slightly worse than last season up from 10.1 to 12.6.

PPDA is the number of opposition passes allowed outside of the pressing team's own defensive third, divided by the number of defensive actions by the pressing team outside of their own defensive third. A lower figure indicates a higher level of pressing, while a higher figure indicates a lower level of pressing.

Despite this City are causing more high turnovers this season (10.71/90) than last (9.95/90). Allied to that, shots from high turnovers are also up slightly from 1.37/90 to 1.43/90. Whilst the overall PPDA number may have been negatively impacted, City are winning the ball higher more often, leading to a greater number of shots from such turnovers.

Pressing stats taken from The Analyst

Conclusion

So far, City have seen the player they signed. Erling Haaland is a goal machine, rarely involved in the build-up but with an underrated creative edge when he does participate.

Haaland has found the City he signed for. A slow, possession heavy team who create bundles of chances.

The number and quality of those chances has been significantly reduced this season but City’s finishing is drastically improved owing chiefly to the Norwegian’s prowess in front of goal. A logical outcome. There have been no surprises.

Both parties will delighted with each other.

Haaland was signed to make a difference in the big Champions League ties and Premier League title deciders where chances are scarce, and a clinical edge is vital. Time will tell if he can deliver but the early signs are good.